Differential responses of Kashmir Himalayan threatened medicinal plants to anticipated climate change

Summary As natural and anthropogenic forcings impel anticipated climate change, their effects on biodiversity environmental sustainability are evident. A fundamental question that is often overlooked is: which changes in will cause the redistribution or extinction of threatened species? Here, we mapped modelled current future geographical distributions four medicinal plants – Aconitum heterophyllum Wall. ex Royle, Fritillaria cirrhosa D.Don, Meconopsis aculeata Royle Rheum webbianum Kashmir Himalaya using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. Species occurrence records were collated from detailed field studies carried out between years 2010 2020. Four general circulation models for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 RCP8.5 change scenarios chosen range over periods around 2050 (average 2041–2060) 2070 2061–2080). Notable differences existed species responses to predictive variables temperature precipitation. Increase most suitable habitat, except A. R. , evident across Himalayan Mountain regions, while Pir Panjal mountain region exhibited a decrease all under scenarios. This study exemplifies idiosyncratic response narrow-range expected highlights conservation implications.